abe Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Sweaty engineering time Ok so Camelback has been open since 1963 and, although a chair apparently fell off the bullwheel once, only 3 people have fallen off of a chair. Camelback does not share skier visit #s though so you can't get a percent there If we consider only Sullivan, it has been running since 1995 year round with 66 chairs and a 3.1min bottom to top time according to liftblog. Since 1995 66 chairs/6min round trip * more or less 5 full months worth of operating after considering both winter and occasional summer operation * 30 days/month * 12 hours/day * 60min/hour is 1,188,000 trips and only 1 chair has fallen off. This gives literally somewhere on the order of 1 in a million chance even on Sullivan. If there are about 2,500 ski lifts in the US, and at least as many no longer exist, and less than a dozen chairs or so have ever fallen off of a list in the US with people on them (mostly Yan detachables), this gives odds on the order of 1 in 500 million that a chair will fall off in any given trip or about 0.000000001% chance 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
eaf Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Right. A friend's KIA drove for 5 years with zero issues. It must drive for the following 5 years with no issues too. Or not, as it's a KIA. My Honda's GPS was syncing radio's time with satellites for 16 years. It must be doing it even now. Oh wait, there was a GPS week rollover bug, so all of a sudden it no longer works since Feb 2020. Whatever you do tomorrow, don't board chair 62. Or 63 because that's the next one to detach. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
abe Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Yeah stats probability not the best way to consider the risk of riding camelback lifts currently but a good general idea of how risky it is to ride a random chairlift. I would be very interested in seeing the results of the investigation and am interested to see what they do with sullivan lift, if doppelmayer says any thing about it, or if Camelback is determined to be at fault for bad maintenance or the bouncing issue. But it does seem like this could very well be a fluke accident - lots of chairs bounce around quite a bit when they are stopped/started suddenly. Sullivan lift definitely very sketch since if it did it once it could do it again. It is just sitting there menacingly on the webcam. Stevenson quad also kind of sketch since it is apparently very similar, definitely will be thinking about this if I am riding it tomorrow, but from what people are saying stevenson never really bounced like people said Sullivan and been doing. At any rate, the risk driving in the car or of crashing/being hit by someone skiing is surely far more dangerous than riding the lifts at Camelback even now (really knocking on wood here as I write this). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
saltyant Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 (edited) Speaking of risk, I rode the Collings Foundation B-17 on 8/20/19. It crashed only about 6 weeks or 43 days later and 7 of 13 people on board were killed. Now that was a close call... but I don't really think in terms of "it could have been me" because I wasn't in the wrong place at the wrong time. Though I doubt I will ever fly on a vintage WWII plane ever again. Edited March 26 by saltyant 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
abe Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Wow, was that one of the planes at the Reading air show? Looking forward to that event this year, hopefully it does not get cancelled again. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
eaf Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Salty, I’ll never ride the same chair with you again 🤣 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GrilledSteezeSandwich Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, abe said: Sweaty engineering time Ok so Camelback has been open since 1963 and, although a chair apparently fell off the bullwheel once, only 3 people have fallen off of a chair. Camelback does not share skier visit #s though so you can't get a percent there If we consider only Sullivan, it has been running since 1995 year round with 66 chairs and a 3.1min bottom to top time according to liftblog. Since 1995 66 chairs/6min round trip * more or less 5 full months worth of operating after considering both winter and occasional summer operation * 30 days/month * 12 hours/day * 60min/hour is 1,188,000 trips and only 1 chair has fallen off. This gives literally somewhere on the order of 1 in a million chance even on Sullivan. If there are about 2,500 ski lifts in the US, and at least as many no longer exist, and less than a dozen chairs or so have ever fallen off of a list in the US with people on them (mostly Yan detachables), this gives odds on the order of 1 in 500 million that a chair will fall off in any given trip or about 0.000000001% chance You added to many zeros. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toast21602 Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 6 minutes ago, GrilledSteezeSandwich said: You added to many zeros. You didn’t add enough ‘o’s. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
saltyant Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 13 minutes ago, abe said: Wow, was that one of the planes at the Reading air show? Possibly, it flew into Hazleton every year for decades. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toast21602 Posted April 7 Report Share Posted April 7 Have there been any updates about this? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GrilledSteezeSandwich Posted April 7 Report Share Posted April 7 13 minutes ago, toast21602 said: Have there been any updates about this? Searching google news, nothing in the last two weeks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
EdBacon Posted April 8 Report Share Posted April 8 On 4/6/2021 at 9:31 PM, toast21602 said: Have there been any updates about this? You're not going to hear anything until an investigation concludes and that could take months. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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